Thanks for writing this, it clarifies a lot. It's amazing how much of what we perceive as 'gut feeling' or 'luck' in business are actually rooted in very precise, albeit often hidden, mathematical models. I wonder how AI will further refine these initial mathematical frameworks, making the 'baked-in' outcomes even more predictable and less about human intuition, for better or worse.
Exceptional breakdown on the reserve trap. The Sapphire data showing how pro-rata across the board tanks multiples to 3.3x is wild. I've seen GPs defend that exact strategy as "founder friendly" when its really just capital misallocation with better PR. The recycling point deserves way more attention, 110-120% deployed capital is such a clean way to compress the gross-to-net gap withou needing miracles.
Thanks for writing this, it clarifies a lot. It's amazing how much of what we perceive as 'gut feeling' or 'luck' in business are actually rooted in very precise, albeit often hidden, mathematical models. I wonder how AI will further refine these initial mathematical frameworks, making the 'baked-in' outcomes even more predictable and less about human intuition, for better or worse.
How can founders find out when they’re pitching to a VC? Should they?
Exceptional breakdown on the reserve trap. The Sapphire data showing how pro-rata across the board tanks multiples to 3.3x is wild. I've seen GPs defend that exact strategy as "founder friendly" when its really just capital misallocation with better PR. The recycling point deserves way more attention, 110-120% deployed capital is such a clean way to compress the gross-to-net gap withou needing miracles.