Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Pawel Brodzinski's avatar

"When Instagram was acquired by Facebook for $1 billion, it only had 13 employees. WhatsApp had 55 when it exited for $19 billion. YouTube had only 65 when Google bought it for $1.65 billion."

That's actually a perfect argument that a lean team can achieve commercial success regardless of whether it's the AI era or not. Last years have just provided us with more examples (although it's yet to be seen whether supernovas like Lovable will still be industry darlings in a decade from now; the revenue/cost math with AI is *very* different).

However, the "standard" playbook (raise money, hire fast, use headcount as a proxy for growth potential) was broken from the very beginning. I perceive it as a system issue:

1. Raising money was the default move for startups, so startups did raise.

2. With money came growth expectations from the investors and a timeline of 12-18 months to use the funds.

3. The only fathomable option to spend the money was to hire (or, sporadically, acquisitions).

4. So hire they did.

If they didn't, they'd get uncomfortable questions from the investors. Seriously, do you know a startup that raised a significant round and then decided to stick with their guns as if they hadn't received a bag of gold?

No matter how fund-hire-grow assumption was a default way (the only way for many) to operate, I don't think we have quantitative data to confirm it was the best path.

If such data existed, we should see a correlation between growing average funding rounds (which has happened) and increasing success rate (which has not). As for an industry that talks that much about being data-driven, that's *a lot* of herd behavior.

Expand full comment
Castleigh Johnson's avatar

One of the best articles I have seen to articulate to my team, this exact concept of lean committed teams.

Jock Willink speaks on this in Extreme Ownership.

Expand full comment

No posts